Trail Running Nutrition Subscriptions: Convenience, Cost Savings, and the Future

Exploring how recurring nutrition plans benefit runners, brands, and the sport as a whole.

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A few times per month, a new box shows up at my door. Coffee, supplements, protein powder, even electrolytes that have transformed my sleep.

Being able to schedule recurring orders for essentials makes life easier, saves money, and removes the friction of reordering.

Subscriptions benefit brands as well. They turn one-time buyers into predictable recurring revenue streams and shift responsibility from the consumer (“remember to reorder”) to the company (“keep delivering value”). The result is a compounding trust loop that drives business growth.

As I prep for my next training block, I’m thinking about the nutrition I’ll need to support my long training runs. Given how cyclical training and racing are, I can’t help but wonder if trail nutrition feels ripe for disruption from a business model standpoint.

We’ve seen this playbook transform other industries. Think Dollar Shave Club for razors, NatureBox for snacks, Quip for oral care, and Netflix for TV and film. Now, it’s spreading into wellness. AG1 may be the most (in)famous example, but Gnarly, Momentous, and Cadence all offer flexible subscription plans for supplements and hydration.

In a previous Trail Waves article, I broke down the economics of energy gels and drink mixes. Today, we’ll explore how subscription-based nutrition could reshape the economics for brands, athletes, and the future of trail running.

Why It Matters (Relevance to Trail Economy)

Nutrition is one of the most consistent purchases trail runners make. More frequent than shoes and far more predictable than race entries.

Every training block demands a steady investment in fuel. Long training runs require gels, drink mixes, and supplements to help make sure runners are adequately fueled for big efforts. The races themselves, especially 100Ks and 100-milers, demand even more. To ensure they’re prepared, many runners prefer to practice fueling with the same products they’ll use on race day.

All of this makes nutrition products uniquely suited to subscriptions. And this model can benefit both brands and athletes:

• Brands — Predictable recurring revenue, smoother forecasting, and higher customer lifetime value.

• Runners — Convenience, personalization, and (often) discounts compared to one-off purchases.

When I broke down the economics of a $4 energy gel, I shared a table of popular gels and drink mixes with their cost per carb and serving. I’ve updated that table to note which products now offer subscription options (spoiler: all of them):

All of your favorite energy gels and drink mixes are available via subscription.

Every major brand in trail nutrition seems to support subscriptions, either directly or through third-party retailers like Amazon or Fuel Goods.

Subscriptions are already a core value driver in this space. The real question is whether this model is just a convenience, competitive table stakes, or the start of a deeper shift in how trail runners fuel and how brands grow.

A Brief History of Subscription Consumer Goods

Before exploring the economics and implications of subscription trail nutrition, it helps to understand how we got here.

1990s-Early 2000s: The OG Subscriptions (Media and Software)

Subscriptions have been popping off for years now, but they first gained traction in media (magazines, newspapers) and software (e.g. Microsoft), where recurring delivery made sense. Early Microsoft customers bought one-time licenses, concentrating revenue upfront. Moving to a recurring model transformed that, turning one-time buyers into long-term customers. Tech companies realized that recurring revenue + customer lock-in = stability, predictability, and scale.

2007-2012: The Direct-to-Consumer Subscription Boom Begins

The rise of e-commerce and recurring billing tech like Shopify unlocked subscriptions for physical goods. Businesses could set up subscription plans, collect customer payments, and ship out physical products on a regular cadence.

Dollar Shave Club (2011) shipped razor blades by mail, while Blue Apron (2012) brought convenience to home cooking. Consumers grew comfortable with the idea of “set it and forget it” replenishment.

2015-2019: Expansion to Every Consumable Category

Subscriptions became mainstream. Everyone had a subscription to offer and, more importantly, consumers were used to paying subscriptions for most of their daily needs. Coffee, pet food¹, cleaning supplies, and more. If it was consumable, you could subscribe to it.

Investors loved the business model for predictable recurring revenue, high customer lifetime value (LTV), and low customer acquisition costs (meaning higher margins). Amazon’s Subscribe & Save feature became ubiquitous, while subscriptions evolved into a marker of brand maturity.

Image credit: CB Insights

2020-2022: COVID and the Golden Age of Subscriptions

Lockdowns supercharged direct-to-consumer adoption. With stores closed, consumers embraced online replenishment. Fitness and wellness products surged. Peloton peaked, Strava raised $110 million at a $1.5 billion valuation, and brands discovered the power of direct consumer data and recurring touchpoints.

2023-Present: Saturation, Fatigue, and Specialization

Subscription fatigue set in, so much so that apps emerged to help people cancel unused subscriptions. But the model continues to adapt. Brands now add personalization, flexibility, and data-driven engagement to combat churn. In trail running, nutrition subscriptions are evolving beyond convenience toward community and training integration.

Over two decades, subscriptions have evolved from magazine mailers to the operating system of modern commerce. And it’s not going to stop here.

According to Grand View Research, the subscription billing market (which includes e-commerce subscriptions) was valued at $7.15 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $17.95 billion by 2030, growing at a 16.9% CAGR.

The Economics of Subscription Nutrition

The sweet spot for any subscription lies where both the provider and the consumer benefit. When the value tilts too far toward the brand, churn rises. When it tilts toward the customer, prices climb (hello, Netflix). The real power of subscriptions emerges when incentives align.

For brands, subscriptions mean:

• Predictable cash flow and higher valuations.

• Lower customer acquisition costs through retention.

• Rich data capture on consumption, churn, and preferences.

• Higher lifetime value. Loyal customers are more valuable than casual buyers.

Subscriptions compound over time. Each new subscriber adds incremental revenue while retained customers stack growth.

For trail runners, subscriptions offer:

• Convenience: never run out of gels or drink mix before race week.

• Personalization: “your fueling plan, delivered monthly.”²

• Value: Lower prices and less decision fatigue.

Risks and Challenges

If subscriptions were all upside, every brand would use them. Trail nutrition carries its own challenges, including:

• High churn: Runners may pause between race cycles or training seasons.

• Subscription fatigue: Many athletes already juggle Strava, Spotify, and other recurring costs.

• Oversupply and staleness: Extra product can pile up or expire if consumption lags. Flexibility is critical.

• Reduced experimentation: Committing to one brand limits discovery of new products.

• Low switching costs: Loyalty can be fleeting despite membership rewards or discounts.

Ideas for the Future

As trail running grows, the subscription model could evolve in several interesting directions:

🤖 Deeper, More Personalized Integrations

Fueling plans could sync with training data, pairing nutrition subscriptions with AI-driven personalization. Imagine recommendations adjusting automatically to mileage, race goals, and recovery needs. A few brands are already experimenting here, and this space feels ripe for innovation.

🛍️ Bundled Nutrition + Gear Offerings

We’re starting to see nutrition bundled with bottles or hydration packs. I could see that expanding with curated “training kits” that combine fuel, apparel, and accessories in one recurring shipment.

🚀 Subscription-First Entrants

Similar to what I wrote about Cadence’s business strategy, new direct-to-consumer nutrition brands may launch with subscriptions as their default model, reducing per-serving costs and building loyalty from day one. Established players will likely double down, refining their existing subscription programs to defend market share.

🤝 Training Platform Partnerships

Picture linking your Strava, TrainingPeaks, or UltraSignup account to a nutrition provider. Your race calendar and training schedule informs a dynamic fueling plan, adjusting shipments based on mileage and existing inventory. No more decision fatigue. No more expired energy gels.

Why It’s Inevitable

Subscription nutrition makes sense for both sides:

• Runners: convenience, personalization, and lower cost per serving.

• Brands: predictable revenue and reduced churn.

• Everyone: less decision fatigue. It’s easier to let a subscription renew than to constantly reorder.

Subscriptions also tap into a “try while you buy” dynamic. Once a product works, inertia keeps it alive. Why cancel a product if you trust it and it works for you?

What do you think? If you’ve tried any subscription nutrition products or have any thoughts about the future of subscription trail nutrition, I’d love to hear from you.

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The Aid Station

Miscellaneous quick hits. Trail style. Actionable, digestible, essential.

📰 Required Reading — “Why I Run” by Nicholas Thompson

Every now and then, a piece of writing grabs me by the heart. That was the case with Nicholas Thompson’s “Why I Run,” published ahead of the release of his memoir The Running Ground.

In the essay, Thompson traces the complicated relationship with his father through the lens of running, first as a way to connect, later as a way to distance himself.

“I took up the sport to be like my father. I kept going because he stopped.”

Running became both inheritance and rebellion, a thread binding generations, even as it frayed.

As someone with a complex relationship with my own father and a deep desire to be a great father to my children, this piece hit hard. It’s one of my favorite pieces of writing I’ve read this year, and I can’t wait to dive into Thompson’s book (and probably bawl my eyes out).

1. Coincidentally, I performed finance and accounting consulting during this time for a subscription-based, fresh dog food delivery company that started in a garage in San Francisco and was eventually acquired for $1 billion. Wild times.

2. I’d actually love to see more brands lean more into this. It would be great to not only have the type of fuel I need in the correct amounts (i.e. Precision Fuel & Hydration), but also have it at the right time.