From Western States lottery demand to crowdfunded prize purses, the direct and circumstantial evidence behind trail running's sustained 8% annual growth.
Really interesting article and appreciate the data highlights and comparisons. As someone who has spent the past decade+ in China, but am now based in northern California (although still going back and forth), it's been incredibly interesting to watch: 1. the growth of trail in China, especially with UTMB, by UTMB, etc. over the past couple of years & brands throwing huge amounts of money into trail and experiences and how that is shaping the 'trail' world there. 2. now comparing what I've seen happen in China over just a few years, to the differences and similarities I've experienced in a very established trail part of the world.
I'd be interested to know how the statistics compare globally (from what I can tell they're more US-focused?). While trail has exploded - and grown almost too quickly to keep up with regulations in China (IMO) - it also feels trendy, and not the deep-rooted 'culture' you get in the backyard training grounds of somewhere like the Western States. For example, in China it almost feels like the brands are pushing the popularity, whereas in the US, it feels slightly the opposite. Of course, you also don't have the same population sizes to pull from, and with the growth of sport in general in China, it would be remiss from a brand standpoint to overlook the opportunity. Anyone, very much appreciate the article; It will be interesting to see how things continue to shape up over the years.
Thanks for sharing! I can imagine China vs. Northern California look quite different in terms of how the sport is growing.
Unfortunately, there's not a ton of great worldwide statistics and it seems, qualitatively at least, that trends may vary quite significantly between the U.S. and Europe and between more established trail countries and those that are emerging.
It's fascinating to read that the brands in China seem to be pushing the sport to the population. I agree it'll be super interesting to see how that plays out in the years to come, especially as we see more Chinese athletes making their way to UTMB, Western States, etc.
the true status of trail running continues to confound me. on the one hand, I feel the same things where it seems like trail running is growing so much. and on the other hand, it still feels like trail running is just tiny and almost ignorable from a media perspective. for example, the Jennifer Licther video that you linked here as an example of compelling bts content about training and racing has less than 10k views in the 12 days since publication. and Jennifer Lichter has less than 5k subs on YouTube. and this is by no means a slight on Jennifer Lichter's content or her likability, but rather I use it is an example that maybe there aren't that many people actually interested in watching trail running. even Des, who has huge crossover potential with a giant roads fanbase, has less than 6k subs on her channel that has mostly trail content.
but at the same time, I feel like trail running has a sometimes outsized presence in social media, with trail running content sometimes finding it's way in to algorithms of people who may not run trails at all.
personally, I have stopped reviewing trail shoes because the views just aren't there to make it worth my time as a not-trail-native person. but I continue to make trail running content because (1) I like trail running, and also because (2) people like to watch trail stuff sometimes. what any of that means for the growth of the sport, I have no idea
Thank you for the context and insight into your own content decisions. I wonder if both things you mention can be true at once. Yes, trail running is super niche and small with an outsized voice (e.g. the people who love it REALLY love it) and it is also growing fast, albeit from a small base. Even if the sport is growing faster than, say, road running, there are already so many more road runners than trail runners so it won't feel like it's as big because it isn't. It seems like trail is much earlier in its life cycle than road running and even other endurance sports.
Hi Seth, I'm a 40 something dad that got into the trail running after I started hiking last year to take care of some serious health issues. Had a great interaction with a crew who were running downhill and that was the start. Had never even heard the words trail running before, just finished my 3rd half marathon, and hope to do a 50k by 2026. Absolutely love it.
Just a few thoughts. Running exploded in Korea over the past few years because of some out of shape celebs picked it up and suffered through it, which rippled through social media, so hope it happens here too.
Secondly speaking of business I'm able to find everything I need for trail running under the sun, except two things. A bona fide Trail Running magazine that maybe takes us through the journey of random ultra participants and their failures in races and places I can only dream of. Second, a damn restaurant, convenience store, or ANY kind of food truck at the start of popular trailheads. They would make such a killing(and cool aid stations for diy ultras).
The 1.7% number is really interesting. Brands are pouring money into race sponsorship while 98% of trail runners never go near a start line. The real action is everything happening in between. Which is exactly what run clubs are quietly working out.
Yeah, the number honestly feels low to me, but it was based on UltraSignup information, so I assume it's relatively close. There certainly seems to be a lot of opportunity on the "in-between". E.g. how can runners get more engaged in trail running without racing or how do we engage folks who don't want to race? Very interesting opportunities there.
Love these stats. While it's growing -- and while my odds to get into WS 2027 with 32 tickets will be a paltry 8-9% -- it's wild to see just how niche trail running remains. Case in point: bowling, with 50M participants, still remains more than 3x as popular as trail running, and there are 3M more indoor golf participants than there are people who run trails.
8-9%!!! That would feel like 80-90% to me. Best of luck!
It's true trail is niche, but bowling has like a 50-year head start and trail is growing faster year-on-year. I suspect a big part of the popularity of things like bowling or indoor golf, unfortunately, relates to the physical demands of doing the various activities. We have a lot of work to do in this country to get people outside, whether that be on trails or something else.
Very good points about bowling and indoor golf. Part of me wonders what qualifies as a participant. Getting people outside is key, though I also don't mind being able to run 20 miles on the trails and not see another soul. May the lottery gods be in your favor, too!
Dude, you're the first one to use "multi-signal" in a trail running story. Gold star!
Thanks, I’ll take it! :)
Really interesting article and appreciate the data highlights and comparisons. As someone who has spent the past decade+ in China, but am now based in northern California (although still going back and forth), it's been incredibly interesting to watch: 1. the growth of trail in China, especially with UTMB, by UTMB, etc. over the past couple of years & brands throwing huge amounts of money into trail and experiences and how that is shaping the 'trail' world there. 2. now comparing what I've seen happen in China over just a few years, to the differences and similarities I've experienced in a very established trail part of the world.
I'd be interested to know how the statistics compare globally (from what I can tell they're more US-focused?). While trail has exploded - and grown almost too quickly to keep up with regulations in China (IMO) - it also feels trendy, and not the deep-rooted 'culture' you get in the backyard training grounds of somewhere like the Western States. For example, in China it almost feels like the brands are pushing the popularity, whereas in the US, it feels slightly the opposite. Of course, you also don't have the same population sizes to pull from, and with the growth of sport in general in China, it would be remiss from a brand standpoint to overlook the opportunity. Anyone, very much appreciate the article; It will be interesting to see how things continue to shape up over the years.
Thanks for sharing! I can imagine China vs. Northern California look quite different in terms of how the sport is growing.
Unfortunately, there's not a ton of great worldwide statistics and it seems, qualitatively at least, that trends may vary quite significantly between the U.S. and Europe and between more established trail countries and those that are emerging.
It's fascinating to read that the brands in China seem to be pushing the sport to the population. I agree it'll be super interesting to see how that plays out in the years to come, especially as we see more Chinese athletes making their way to UTMB, Western States, etc.
the true status of trail running continues to confound me. on the one hand, I feel the same things where it seems like trail running is growing so much. and on the other hand, it still feels like trail running is just tiny and almost ignorable from a media perspective. for example, the Jennifer Licther video that you linked here as an example of compelling bts content about training and racing has less than 10k views in the 12 days since publication. and Jennifer Lichter has less than 5k subs on YouTube. and this is by no means a slight on Jennifer Lichter's content or her likability, but rather I use it is an example that maybe there aren't that many people actually interested in watching trail running. even Des, who has huge crossover potential with a giant roads fanbase, has less than 6k subs on her channel that has mostly trail content.
but at the same time, I feel like trail running has a sometimes outsized presence in social media, with trail running content sometimes finding it's way in to algorithms of people who may not run trails at all.
personally, I have stopped reviewing trail shoes because the views just aren't there to make it worth my time as a not-trail-native person. but I continue to make trail running content because (1) I like trail running, and also because (2) people like to watch trail stuff sometimes. what any of that means for the growth of the sport, I have no idea
Thank you for the context and insight into your own content decisions. I wonder if both things you mention can be true at once. Yes, trail running is super niche and small with an outsized voice (e.g. the people who love it REALLY love it) and it is also growing fast, albeit from a small base. Even if the sport is growing faster than, say, road running, there are already so many more road runners than trail runners so it won't feel like it's as big because it isn't. It seems like trail is much earlier in its life cycle than road running and even other endurance sports.
I appreciate the thoughtful response!
Hi Seth, I'm a 40 something dad that got into the trail running after I started hiking last year to take care of some serious health issues. Had a great interaction with a crew who were running downhill and that was the start. Had never even heard the words trail running before, just finished my 3rd half marathon, and hope to do a 50k by 2026. Absolutely love it.
Just a few thoughts. Running exploded in Korea over the past few years because of some out of shape celebs picked it up and suffered through it, which rippled through social media, so hope it happens here too.
Secondly speaking of business I'm able to find everything I need for trail running under the sun, except two things. A bona fide Trail Running magazine that maybe takes us through the journey of random ultra participants and their failures in races and places I can only dream of. Second, a damn restaurant, convenience store, or ANY kind of food truck at the start of popular trailheads. They would make such a killing(and cool aid stations for diy ultras).
Thanks for sharing and congrats on your 3rd half marathon! Best of luck training for the 50k!
It’s interesting to hear how trail running gains foothold and grows in different countries and what the catalysts are.
I hear you on the food trucks at trailheads! Would be great to have a coffee truck at least.
The 1.7% number is really interesting. Brands are pouring money into race sponsorship while 98% of trail runners never go near a start line. The real action is everything happening in between. Which is exactly what run clubs are quietly working out.
Yeah, the number honestly feels low to me, but it was based on UltraSignup information, so I assume it's relatively close. There certainly seems to be a lot of opportunity on the "in-between". E.g. how can runners get more engaged in trail running without racing or how do we engage folks who don't want to race? Very interesting opportunities there.
Love these stats. While it's growing -- and while my odds to get into WS 2027 with 32 tickets will be a paltry 8-9% -- it's wild to see just how niche trail running remains. Case in point: bowling, with 50M participants, still remains more than 3x as popular as trail running, and there are 3M more indoor golf participants than there are people who run trails.
8-9%!!! That would feel like 80-90% to me. Best of luck!
It's true trail is niche, but bowling has like a 50-year head start and trail is growing faster year-on-year. I suspect a big part of the popularity of things like bowling or indoor golf, unfortunately, relates to the physical demands of doing the various activities. We have a lot of work to do in this country to get people outside, whether that be on trails or something else.
Very good points about bowling and indoor golf. Part of me wonders what qualifies as a participant. Getting people outside is key, though I also don't mind being able to run 20 miles on the trails and not see another soul. May the lottery gods be in your favor, too!
Thanks! I have 4 tickets, so will need all the luck I can get.
Feels like a thousand percent, but let's look at the data. Love it. Another great breakdown!
Thank you, Mike! 🙏