Is Trail Running Actually Growing? Here's What the Data Says.
From Western States lottery demand to crowdfunded prize purses, the direct and circumstantial evidence behind trail running's sustained 8% annual growth.
My first trail ultra was the 2019 Orcas Island 50K, which I ran on my 33rd birthday. It was a sliding doors experience that permanently changed my life. Ever since, I’ve dreamt of toeing the line at Western States. As the oldest 100-miler in the world, run each June in my home state of California, it feels like an inevitable pinnacle for my trail running journey.
Since 2019, I’ve qualified for the Western States lottery three times1. Each year, my ticket count doubles2 while my overall odds have barely moved. That’s because the total number of qualifiers keeps growing at a blistering pace. The 2025 lottery featured nearly 10,000 unique entrants and ~69,000 total tickets competing for roughly 275 spots. Due to permitting constraints, the race is capped at 369 starters total, a number that hasn’t changed since 1984. Over the past decade, unique entrants have grown 4x while total tickets have grown 10x.
Since every qualifying race is 100K or longer, this isn’t casual interest. It’s thousands of people completing the sport’s longest distances just for a shot at one of its most elusive starting lines.
But is Western States a special case, or a signal of something larger?
“Trail running is growing.” We’re hearing it everywhere. At industry conferences, in brand press releases, and from people like me who cover the sport. And to be fair, it certainly feels true. But feelings aren’t evidence, so let’s look at the data.
Are we telling ourselves the sport is growing because we want it to be true, or do the numbers actually support this feeling?
Two Types of Signals
“Trail running is booming” has become almost cliche, repeated at industry events, in YouTube live streams, and in conversations at the trailhead. We feel it at races and in our local running groups. But feeling it and proving it are different things, and a claim this persistent deserves scrutiny.
To answer this question properly, I’m going to look at two types of signals:
Direct measures: specific quantifiable numbers, trends, and participation data
Circumstantial evidence: where rational actors are placing their money
The goal is to triangulate across both to find a clear answer.
The strongest early indication that we’re dealing with something real comes from Stephen Holmberg, founder of research firm Insight Accelerator, who presented at The Running Event (TRE) alongside Freetrail CEO Dylan Bowman and UltraSignup Co-CEO David Callahan. Holmberg’s observation set the tone:
“It is a very different TRE than last year. The amount of trail product we’re seeing on the floor is a clear indication that this is where the energy is.”
As part of a well-attended panel with Bowman and Callahan, Holmberg drew on growth data to underscore his observations, including:
The five-year annual growth rate for trail running is 8%, compared to just 0.5% for running overall.
Much of this growth is driven by casual runners (25 or less runs per year).
~80% of new trail runners are crossing over from the road.
That gap, the 8% versus the 0.5%, is the question this article is built around. The direct signals that follow help quantify it. The circumstantial signals help explain it.
The Numbers
Direct signals are objective, quantifiable data from independent third parties. Numbers that can stand on their own without vibes-based interpretation.
Participation Breadth
The total number of people running trails is growing. According to the Sports & Fitness Industry Association’s (SFIA) 2025 Topline report, there were 16.1 million US trail runners in 2024, up 1.3 million (+8.8%) from 14.8 million the year prior. The five-year annual growth rate from 2019-2024 is 8.0%, consistent with the figure Holmberg cited at TRE. This growth outpaces walking, running/jogging, and swimming combined, as well as individual activities like golf (6.7% five-year growth) and bowling (2.4%).
Race Depth
More people are also showing up to race. Ultrarunning Magazine’s annual finish statistics show continued increases in total races, total finishes, unique finishers, and first time finishers across North American events.
RunSignup’s 2025 Race Trends Report confirms the same pattern, with registration growth across all distances over the past five years3.
The trend holds globally. In a September 2025 announcement, UTMB cited Strava activity data showing a 2x increase in athletes uploading trail runs in the first half of 2025 versus the same period three years earlier. Participation in UTMB Index Races over the same window grew 2.4x, surpassing 800,000 race starts in just six months, with 42% of those runners competing in their first-ever trail event.
People aren’t just showing up. They’re going longer and committing harder.
The Floor and the Ceiling
Here’s the number the reframes everything: according to The State of Trail Running Report (2024), only ~257,000 of the 14.8 million US trail runners (~1.7%) participate in races.
This tells two things simultaneously. First, the sport is already vastly larger than its race scene. Millions of people run trails weekly without ever crossing a finish line. Second, the race ecosystem has enormous room to grow. If even a small percentage of that non-racing majority eventually finds its way to a start line, the race participation numbers look very different.
Read together, the floor and the ceiling are both expansion signals. The sport is bigger than we measure it, and the race scene hasn’t come close to capturing it.
The Bets
Circumstantial signals represent the how instead of the what. They’re the actions that rational people and brands are taking with their money that reflect their outlook on trail running’s trajectory.
Prize pools, Crowdfunding, and Brand Activation
Prize pools have grown significantly. ACG recently sponsored Gorge Waterfalls and Broken Arrow with purses of $75,000 and $150,000, respectively. Meanwhile, the Salomon-backed Golden Trail World Series is set to pay out more than €435,000 across its 2026 races. Larger purses attract better competition, which produces more compelling racing, which drives broader awareness of both the races and the brands. This investment isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s a signal that brands see a real ROI in attaching their names to trail running’s most competitive races.
That investment also shows up on the ground. I wrote recently about Salomon’s activation at the Big Alta, and ACG brought its signature touch to Gorge Waterfalls this past weekend, taking over Gorges Beer Company and draping Cascade Locks in its signature orange hue. These aren’t just sponsorship logos on a bib. They’re cultural statements.
Perhaps the most pointed signal of genuine fandom, though, is the rise of crowdfunded prize pools. At this year’s Black Canyon Ultras, Aravaipa Running crowd-sourced more than $16,000 for the 100K podium and another $7,000 for the 50K. Fans funding elite competition is behavior that doesn’t exist in niche sports. Whether this scales race-to-race and year-over-year remains a real test, but the fact that it’s happening at all is notable.
Premium and Niche Brand Proliferation
The past few years have seen a wave of premium brands carve out real market share. Norda has built a following around best-in-class materials at $300 price points. SATISFY has established a cult following through high-fashion running apparel. Nnormal justifies ~$200 shoes on durability and performance, good enough for Kilian Jornet to podium Western States.
These brands aren’t competing on price. They’re competing on quality and identity, which is only possible because of the affluence that characterizes a meaningful chunk of the trail running market. The State of Trail Running Report (2024) found that 66% of US trail runners earn more than $100K annually, 25% more than $200K, and 8% more than $300K.
On the value end, brands like Mount to Coast have also gained traction with super trainers built to last hundreds of miles priced at $160. This is a different bet on the same underlying thesis. Taken together, the emergence and success of these brands signals that they’re reaching previously underserved niches of the trail running market. When consumers spend money, they vote. These brands are winning votes.
Race Infrastructure Expansion
The participation growth documented earlier appears to be enabling real infrastructure expansion across regions and formats. The UTMB ecosystem has eclipsed 50 races as of 2025 and shows more than 60 events under its umbrella for 2026. The Cocodona 250 recently moved to a lottery system after selling out in a matter of minutes. The Big Alta 100K sold out in its inaugural year and has quickly become one of the must-attend early-season race weekends on the calendar. Once it becomes a Western States qualifier, expect it to move even faster.
Supply is chasing demand that existing formats can’t contain. As the sport continues to grow, it becomes easier for every runner, regardless of distance preference, pace, or experience level, to find a race that calls to them.
Media and Content Investment
At TRE, Dylan Bowman described social media’s influence on trail running growth as “the YouTubification.” Documentary films, athlete content, and owned media are showing people what trail running actually looks like, rather than just telling them. It’s proven to be an effective growth lever, and the investment behind it is accelerating.
Athletes
Athletes like Jennifer Lichter and Hans Troyer are producing compelling behind-the-scenes content about training and racing.
Brands
Brands are building owned media arms, not just paying for placements, but creating content they can leverage for awareness and monetize over time. The difference matters. Seeing a Hyperlyte sticker at a race creates awareness. Watching a documentary about an athlete’s comeback from rhabdomyolysis to a Western States qualifier creates emotional investment.
Hyperlyte clearly understands this, which is why it’s one of the lead sponsors (alongside Lever Movement and Wyn Republic) of The Trail House, a forthcoming reality series that I’d preliminarily describe as The Real World meets trail running.
Content Creators
At the editorial level, Freetrail and Singletrack started as podcasts and have built sustainable businesses premised on a large, engaged trail audience. They’ve become what SportsCenter was to ESPN’s early growth. Behind them, a long tail of creators on YouTube, Substack, and Instagram have carved out their own pockets of influence. This newsletter is a direct beneficiary of that ecosystem.
Each of these examples represents people choosing to spend time and resources making content because there’s an audience for it and, increasingly, a positive ROI. It’s the combination of creator desire, consumer demand, and capital investment that signals a sport moving beyond the super niche.
Takeaways
Does the data actually support the feeling that trail running is growing? Yes, and here’s why we can believe that with confidence.
1. Growth is real and multi-signal.
This isn’t one data point or an optimistic voice at a conference. Participation surveys, race finish counts, lottery demand, brand investment, crowdfunded prize pools, and content ecosystems all point the same direction. When unrelated signals converge, that’s not a vibe, it’s a thesis.
2. The sport is bigger than its race scene.
The 1.7% figure is an under-appreciated number in trail running. Approximately 15 million participants and only a few hundred thousand racers. The gap between these two numbers may be an opportunity. The race ecosystem, the brands, the media, and the content creators are all operating on a fraction of the sport’s actual footprint.
3. The bets help tell the story.
Brands don’t build trail R&D labs, fund $150,000 prize purses, or launch $300 shoes if they don’t feel confident there’s a market for them. Content creators don’t build businesses for audiences that don’t exist. Fans don’t crowdfund prize money for sports they don’t care about. The people placing real bets with real money have already answered the trail running growth question.
Yes, trail running is growing. And it’s possible the most interesting growth hasn’t even happened yet.
The Aid Station
Miscellaneous quick hits. Trail style. Actionable, digestible, essential.
🎥 Singletrack News (Week of April 13th)
Big shoutout to Finn and Alyssa, who mentioned this newsletter (and last week’s article about Rendezvu) in the most recent Singletrack Newsroom episode. It’s absolutely surreal every time this publication gets referenced in public and I can’t overstate how much I appreciate the love.
📈 Exploring Nike’s Q3 FY 2026 Public Filings
Speaking of growth and ACG’s investment in the sport of trail running, I was curious to see if the sport was mentioned at all in Nike’s most recent quarterly filings or in the accompanying earnings call. Based on my research, the word “trail” wasn’t mentioned at all in its 10-Q or in the earnings call. There were five references to ACG in the earnings call (though none in the 10-Q), specifically related to a discussion about emerging areas of the business:
“The NIKE ACG team is committed to serving the outdoor athlete by creating the world’s most innovative footwear, apparel and accessories, building our presence authentically over time by supporting world-class racers and events, and building long-term partnerships with the retailers who authentically serve outdoor athletes. The outdoors is a tremendous opportunity for NIKE as we bring excitement and a fresh perspective to the consumers and the industry.”
Secured by completing a qualifying race within the established cutoff.
Each year a runner completes a qualifying race and enters the lottery, their number of tickets will be equal to 2^(n-1) tickets, where n = the number of years they’ve qualified without being selected for the race. Thus, entrants will earn one ticket in year one, two in year two, four in year three, and so on.
While this isn’t perfect data, since it includes both road and trail events, the growth across distances dovetails with the overall growth represented by both Ultrarunning Magazine and UTMB.
Dude, you're the first one to use "multi-signal" in a trail running story. Gold star!
Really interesting article and appreciate the data highlights and comparisons. As someone who has spent the past decade+ in China, but am now based in northern California (although still going back and forth), it's been incredibly interesting to watch: 1. the growth of trail in China, especially with UTMB, by UTMB, etc. over the past couple of years & brands throwing huge amounts of money into trail and experiences and how that is shaping the 'trail' world there. 2. now comparing what I've seen happen in China over just a few years, to the differences and similarities I've experienced in a very established trail part of the world.
I'd be interested to know how the statistics compare globally (from what I can tell they're more US-focused?). While trail has exploded - and grown almost too quickly to keep up with regulations in China (IMO) - it also feels trendy, and not the deep-rooted 'culture' you get in the backyard training grounds of somewhere like the Western States. For example, in China it almost feels like the brands are pushing the popularity, whereas in the US, it feels slightly the opposite. Of course, you also don't have the same population sizes to pull from, and with the growth of sport in general in China, it would be remiss from a brand standpoint to overlook the opportunity. Anyone, very much appreciate the article; It will be interesting to see how things continue to shape up over the years.