Trail Running's Coaching Gap: A Multi-Billion Dollar Market Hiding in Plain Sight

Only 29% of trail runners use a coach. Why that may not be a bug, but a blueprint for the future.

Original image by Ben Moreland via Unsplash. Edited by author.

Trail coaching is a multi-billion-dollar¹ opportunity hiding in plain sight.

Yet 71% of trail runners don’t use formal training, coaching, or nutrition services.

That might sound like a failure, but maybe it’s something else. A signal. An opening.

What if trail runners aren’t opting out because of cost or disinterest, but because they’re looking for something coaching hasn’t offered yet?

Something more collaborative. More flexible. Something different?

The Trail Running Coaching & Training Market

Fewer than 3 in 10 U.S. trail runners work with a coach.

That’s striking in a sport full of athletes who obsess over mileage, race logistics, and grams of carbs per hour.

The State of Trail Running Report report pegs the U.S. market coaching and training services market could be worth up to $1.2B as of 2024, with the worldwide market some multiple of that (no worldwide coaching market estimates available).

And this market is also growing.

The global sports coaching market is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2025 to 2035².

If we apply a conservative annual growth rate of 6%, reasonable given trail running’s momentum, the U.S. coaching market could exceed $2B³ by 2035, with the global market reaching several billion more.

So we have a large, and growing, market.

Potential Causes for Low % of Runners Coached

These numbers left me scratching my head. Only a small slice of trail runners pay for coaching, but almost half that do pay more than $1,000 per year.

I’ve been on both sides. In 2019, as a new ultra runner, I hired a coach and found the structure, accountability, and expertise beneficial. I also worked at Strava at the time, with an annual fitness stipend that helped make the $140/month coaching fee feel more accessible.

Now, with two young kids and more experience, I coach myself. I lean on trusted friends and past training plans. Flexibility matters more right now than rigid structure. That’s not to say I wouldn’t look to a coach to help for a race like Western States.

Looking back on that journey, and the data, I started forming a few hypotheses about why most trail runners don’t hire a coach. A few possibilities:

Price Concerns

But it’s too expensive?

That would explain a lot of the low coaching rate, but the State of Trail Running Report shows U.S. trail runners spend an average of $194-$335 per year on coaching, while 48% of paying athletes spend over $1,000.

Photo: State of Trail Running Report 2024. Of the 29% of trail runners who spend on coaching, 48% spend more than $1,000 per year.

Clearly, runners are wiling to pay when they see value.

Lack of Access to Adequate Training Plans

I believe most runners want more than a templated training plan. You can Google one, or ask ChatGPT, but that misses the point.

I suspect they want a sounding board. Someone who gets their life and can tailor a training plan around it.

When I trained for Kettle Moraine 100 last summer, I built my own schedule, but leaned heavily on my friend (and former Strava colleague) Kyle⁴ for help with nutrition and training questions I couldn’t answer alone.

Today, AI tools like Vert.Run, Runna, and RacePace make personalization more accessible than ever.

Runna (recently acquired by Strava)

Access isn’t the issue. The format might be.

Perception: Coaching is Only for “Serious” Athletes

I wondered if some runners might feel coaching is for elites or those chasing specific milestones.

Data from a recent iRunFar article supports this. Among 2023 Western States finishers:

• 36% had coaches

• 47% of sub-24 hour finishers had coaches

• 46% of DNFs had coaches

As the article notes, there are “two types of athletes who are most likely to have coaches — those chasing a competitive result, and those for whom a finish is not guaranteed.”

In other words, coaching currently attracts runners pushing past their limits towards big milestones. Notably, the share of sub-24-hour Western States finishers with coaches has steadily risen in recent years.

Photo: iRunFar

While this data helps us understand why Western States runners would have coaches, it doesn’t necessarily explain why 71% of trail runners don’t have a coach.

A More Nuanced Perspective

I found a recent Substack article by Eli and Tabor Hemming interesting in providing another layer of insight.

They’re not “self-coached” in a traditional sense. They are “collectively coached”, balancing autonomy with input from a network of trusted advisors.

“We know what we don’t know…And we know enough to know no one knows it all.”

A few of the key points the Hemming’s highlighted provide more context to why many athletes, including elites, may not have dedicated coaches.

🧭 Trail Runners Value Autonomy and Flexibility

From the Hemmings:

“We write our own training. But we don’t just slap intervals on a calendar and hope for the best. We consult. We adjust.”

I imagine a lot of runners, including myself, enjoy the autonomy of writing a training plan that works for their specific life circumstances.

That doesn’t mean, however, that a one-size-all approach works either.

“Each athlete is different. Which means each training plan should be different. You can’t just carbon-copy a macrocycle from someone else’s Strava and assume it’ll unlock your breakthrough race.”

What works for one runner isn’t necessarily going to work if copied and pasted for another. And given their recent results, the Hemmings would know as well as anyone what it takes to have a breakthrough race.

💡 Most trail runners aren’t anti-guidance, they just don’t want to outsource their training entirely. They want ownership, feedback, AND flexibility.

🧠 Expertise Is a Network, Not a Guru

Instead of relying on a single coach, the Hemmings take an alternative approach where they tap into the specific expertise of people in their network:

“What we do have are some incredibly smart humans in our corner. Actual experts that we trust…[They] help us make informed decisions instead of just blindly guessing our way into another injury cycle.”

Eli and Tabor are self-aware enough to know what they don’t know. They leverage their community to help equip them with the information needed to adjust their training plans as needed.

💡 The traditional 1:1 coach model relies on a single “expert”. As more and more information becomes available (via podcasts, group chats, Twitter, etc.), runners may look to multiple sources for a more well-rounded perspective.

🧪 Customization and Flexibility are Key to Value

The Hemmings highlight a benefit of being collectively coached is that it gives them space to own their training and results. There’s no coach to blame or get mad at when things go south. Just endless learning and curiosity.

This also means the two get to experiment a lot in training.

“And, as we’ve been saying for years, “f*$% around and find out.” Because a lot of what “works” in running today started as someone’s weird idea yesterday.”

Challenging the status quo is not only a healthy way to view running and life, but can also lead to more interesting and enjoyable paths.

“Our training isn’t perfect. It’s messy. Unorthodox. A little chaotic, a little experimental, and full of unknowns. But it’s ours. We’re aren’t waiting for a coach to tell us we’re fit. We decide that. We believe that.”

They know what type of training works for them. They trust their bodies to know when they’re ready to race. And they value a training plan that is flexible and adaptable to the realities of their life and their individuality.

💡 Trail running is built on curiosity, exploration, and adaptability. Coaching solutions need to be equally flexible, creative, and versatile. In a sport where FAFO can be a training philosophy, a one-size-fits-all coaching solution would be a poor fit.

Business Lens: The Opportunity Hiding in Plain Sight

Maybe the low coaching rate isn’t a rejection, but a blueprint for the next revolution.

Trail running is growing is expected to keep growing into the future. Only 29% of trail runners pay for coaching, but more more could benefit from guidance, support, or consultation. The remaining 71% just need the right value for the cost.

Here are there areas where I see opportunity:

📊 1. Addressing Market Gaps

Right now, coaching sits at the extremes. Generic training templates from Google or expensive 1:1 coaching. That has the potential to leave a lot of runners unserved.

There’s white space in the market for hybrid models, tiered pricing, and consultative coaching.

Think periodic check-ins, custom plans without full-time engagement, or small group coaching pods (e.g. run coach + nutrition + strength). These formats could meet more of the demand curve and bring coaching to more runners who have been turned off by traditional models.

🚀 2. On-Ramps for Beginners or Those New to Coaching

Beginners aren’t likely to jump straight into a $150/month coaching arrangement.

But they still need guidance. They don’t even know what they don’t know.

There’s an opportunity for low-friction, low-cost entry points. For example, more education around the importance of nutrition, race strategy, and training structure. These on-ramps help newer runners build trust, learn the basics, and see the value of coaching before they commit to a 1:1 setup.

💪 3. Customization and Flexibility = Value

Runners don’t just want training plans, they want coaching that fits with the reality of their lives as parents, working professionals, and/or elite competitors.

That might mean:

• High-touch support for someone chasing a Wester States qualifier

• AI-powered tools for a parent squeezing runs into a chaotic schedule

The future isn’t one-size-fits-all. It’s all about optionality, and meeting runners where they are, with tools and support that adapt to their goals and availability.

Final Thoughts

71% of trail runners don’t have a coach. That’s not a bug, it’s a signal.

It points to a desire for more flexible, personalized ways to improve Something beyond or in addition to the traditional 1:1, regimented coaching model.

Maybe that looks like AI-assisted tools. Maybe it’s a new consultative layer. Or maybe the next billion-dollar coaching product won’t look like a coach at all.

It’ll look like a toolkit.

What Do You Think?

I’m not a coach, and am far from an expert, so I’d love to hear from you.

What’s your experience with coaching? Does any of this resonate?

Why do you think so few trail runners pay for coaching services today?

For the coaches or coaching tool companies out there: what challenges are you seeing in the space?

Reply to this email or comment below!

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The Aid Station

Quick hits. Trail style. Actionable, digestible, essential.

🏃 Race I’m Excited for this Week — Lost Sierra 50K

No, it’s not Western States or Hardrock, but it will be mountainous and stunning. After dropping out of Black Canyon 100K with a sinus infection, I finally get to toe another start line and enjoy the trails. This race will be a training checkpoint on my way to another Western States qualifier later this year.

Hosted by Bad Luck Run Club, the 50K is a point-to-point race over the Sierra Buttes in Northern California. The first half climbs steep and rugged terrain, while the second half is almost entirely downhill. Can’t wait to give it a go!

📈 Earnings Release — Decker’s Brands (DECK) Q1 Fiscal Year 2026

Decker’s Outdoor Corp (parent of HOKA, UGG, Teva, and more) reported Q1 fiscal year 2026 earnings on Thursday, July 24th.

Here are the need-to-know highlights:

• Decker’s exceeded estimates on quarterly revenues ($964.5 million actual vs. $899 million estimate) and earnings per share ($0.93 actual vs. $0.68 estimate).

• Net quarterly sales increased 16.9% to $964.5 million. HOKA led the way with a 19.8% increase quarter-over-quarter, from $545.2 million to $653.1 million.

• The company’s stock was up 12.04% on the positive earnings news as of the time this newsletter was published

👟 New Gear Alert — HOKA Rocket X Trail

Speaking of Decker’s and HOKA, iRunFar confirmed this morning that the brand is releasing a new carbon-plated trail shoe: the Rocket X Trail.

According to folks at iRunFar who have tested the shoe, it’s “designed for pure speed on gravel and non-technical singletrack”. At 9.1 ounces and with a 42mm stack height, it’s sure to feel light, cushioned, and fast.

Sounds like a perfect match for a race like Western States.

Photo: iRunFar / Bryon Powell

1. $1.2B in the U.S. alone according to the State of Trail Running Report 2024. Excludes elite trail runners and other outliers.

2. Allied Market Research. “Sports Training Market to Reach $50.7 Billion, Globally, by 2035 at 5.2% CAGR: Allied Market Research”

3. $1.2B * (1+6%)^10 = $2.15B

4. Seriously, if you are in the market for a coach, you should reach out.