I accidentally went viral this week.
Well, “viral” is relative, but it was the most far-reaching social media post of my life.
I shared a graphic on LinkedIn (you’ll see it below), because it hit three boxes that always spark my curiosity:
Unique
Fascinating
A topic I’m passionate about
The graphic came from a recent iRunFar article tracking which shoe brand each of the 369 runners wore at the Western States Endurance Run.
iRunFar filmed runners a few miles from the start, capturing brand and model before DNFs could thin the field. TRAILRUNNINGReview then analyzed the footage and turned it into the visualization I shared along with a few high-level takeaways:
The post drew more comments, reposts, and interactions than anything I’ve ever put on the internet.
Many people raised sharp points and questions worth exploring in more depth, so I’m breaking them down here. I’ll also include some of my initial observations, responses, and a few deeper insights.
1. HOKA the Runaway Leader?
The standout from the graphic above is HOKA’s dominance at 32.6% of runners, nearly 3x the next brand (Altra at 12.9%). The Speedgoat 6 (7.4%), Mafate Speed 4 (6.0%), and Tecton X 3 (6.0%) led the way as the three most popular shoes in the race.
Several LinkedIn commentators noted HOKA has been the Western States presenting sponsor since 2019, suggesting sponsorship and/or paying runners to wear their shoes explains their lead.
So is HOKA’s edge just about sponsorship?
Partially, but not entirely. Sponsorship keeps HOKA front and center for trail runners, but I doubt many switched solely for this race.
Here’s a thought experiment: If, tomorrow, the WSER Foundation announced Nike (6.3% of the 2025 field) as the 2026 sponsor, would Nike suddenly hit 30%?
Highly unlikely.
HOKA’s brand awareness drives runners to try their shoes during training and other races long before they toe the line at Western States.
And consider this: ~300 of the 369 runners got into the race via the lottery or waitlist, often after years of chasing qualifiers. The idea they’d switch shoes for their dream race, without training in them, doesn’t pass the smell test.
Instead, I’m interested to see if either the terrain or the geographic location of the race played a factor in shoe choice.
It’ll be telling to compare the WSER numbers to those from:
Hardrock1 — non-HOKA sponsored, more mountainous/technical
UTMB — HOKA sponsored, but in Europe with very different terrain
I’ve seen representatives from TRAILRUNNINGReview note that shoe choices do shift in shorter and more technical races, so it would be interesting to compare further analyses.
You can email them at info@trailrunningreview.com for more information.
2. Altra Maintains its Stronghold in the Low-Drop Niche
Altra, known for its zero-drop2 shoes, placed one athlete (Hans Troyer) in the top 10 (a 5% share), but ranked 2nd overall with a 12.9% share. This suggests Altra’s success is driven by more long-term stability: the everyday finisher. Runners who prioritize low-drop comfort, lightweight design, and a wider toe box.
Like HOKA, Altra once held the WSER presenting sponsorship (2016-2019), which likely boosted awareness and market share among runners seeking a zero-drop option, just as HOKA has for max-cushion fans.
Anecdotally, people I’ve heard from who love Altra really love Altra. Differentiating, doing it well, and keeping your core happy clearly pay off.
3. Salomon as the Underdog?
I was surprised to see Salomon at just 7.7%, less than a quarter of HOKA’s share. With their performance pedigree and Courtney Dauwalter as the face of the brand, I would have expected more.
On reflection, like HOKA, this likely comes down to course attributes (terrain, temps, and technicality) and geography. Western States’ Northern California trails are far less technical than the Alps, and the field skews heavily American, especially among non-elites.
Salomon is known for high-performance gear in technical terrain. Headquartered in France, many of its sponsored athletes, like Mathieu Blanchard and François D’haene, are European.
If similar data is pulled for UTMB later this month, I’d expect Salomon’s share to be much higher, given the Alps location, European representation, and the demands of steeper, more technical trails.
4. Here Come the Disruptors
One of my favorite takeaways is the rise of four upstart, independent, direct-to-consumer shoe brands. Together, these four brands made up ~7.4% of the Western States field (about 1 in 13 runners). None of them existed more than five years ago.
NNormal (2.7% of the WSER field)
Founder-driven marketing at its finest: co-founder and ultrarunning legend Kilian Jornet took 3rd at WSER in the Kjerag 2.
NNormal’s three core values are comfort, durability, and quality3, with the Kjerag measured to last up to 1,350km. In addition, NNormal aims to balance price (the Kjerag retails for $140) and sustainability.
norda (1.9%)
Founded in Montreal in 2020, norda makes niche, high-end shoes priced between $285 and $325. They justify the cost with luxury-grade materials, including Dyneema uppers, Vibram soles, and Arnitel foam. While expensive, the brand leans into the idea of durability that’s meant to save money over time.
Speedland (1.7%)
Portland-founded in 2020, Speedland is boutique and high-performance, known for $275 limited-edition drops.
Its innovative features (like the BOA closure system), carbon plate integration, aggressive outsoles, and high-end materials appeal to gear enthusiasts and runners who welcome customization, even at a higher price point.
Mount to Coast (1.1%)
Launched in Hong Kong in 2024, Mount to Coast focuses on balanced features (GOFLOW midsole, dual lacing), thoughtful design, and everyday ultra value.
The brand’s T1 flagship trail shoe retails for $180 and is sold mainly direct-to-consumer online. Mount to Coast focuses less on hype and more on practicality.
For such young brands to already have a presence at WSER? Pretty cool.
5. Nike and Adidas Finding Success on the Trails
It’s been great to see Nike and Adidas continue to invest in their trail teams and find success at Western States.
Adidas TERREX put six athletes in the men’s and women’s top 10 (30% share vs. 6.0% of the total field), including women’s champion Abby Hall. Nike landed two top 10 finishes (10% share vs. 6.3% overall), including men’s winner Caleb Olson.
Men’s Top 10 footwear:
Women’s Top 10 footwear:
Remarkably, the top nine men all wore different brands. Has that ever happened before?
Only one HOKA athlete made either top 10, partly due to:
Jim Walmsley and Hayden Hawks (2024’s 1st and 3rd) withdrawing pre-race
Rod Farvard (last year’s 2nd) fading late after running near the front
Adam Peterman battling quad issues but finding a gritty finish
Could it be the shoes? Maybe. More likely, race-day variance.
6. No TNF?
It was surprising not to see The North Face in the top-15 graphic, especially with Seth Ruhling (TNF sponsored athlete) taking 6th in his 100-mile debut.
I confirmed with TRAILRUNNINGReview via email that they counted three WSER runners in TNF shoes, but the visualization only showed the top 15 brands.
Seth’s strong run might just put The North Face trail shoes back on more runners’ radars.
7. WSER as a Market Signal?
Each race is a single snapshot in time, but shoe preferences aren’t. Trail runners typically race in shoes they’ve already logged hundreds of training miles in.
So, what does this data suggest about hot, runnable California races?
Does HOKA have a product edge in these conditions compared to, say, UTMB in the Alps?
What lessons could other brands take from this data?
Western States is a unique mix: point-to-point, high temps, altitude, canyons, and runnable trail. With a hard cap of just 369 runners, a few choices one way or the other can swing brand percentages from year to year.
More telling analyses might compare:
The same race over multiple years
Larger fields like UTMB or Black Canyon 100K
✴️ Call for Curiosity ✴️
This clearly resonated with a lot of people. But why?
What stood out to you?
Is HOKA’s dominance about sponsorship, terrain, brand awareness, or something else?
If you’ve run Western States, how did you decide which shoe(s) to wear?
The Aid Station
Miscellaneous quick hits. Trail style. Actionable, digestible, essential.
👟 Gear Drop — SATISFY’s TheROCKER
SATISFY released its first trail shoe, TheROCKER, on August 14th. The shoe retails for $290 and comes in three colors: Antique White, Shadow, and Falcon.
I’ve written before about SATISFY’s blue ocean strategy, and it’s cool to see them move to footwear. I’m partial to the aesthetic of the Antique White myself.
How many WSER runners will lace up TheROCKER next year?
🎥 YouTube Podcast I Enjoyed — Ben Gibbard on “The Freetrail Podcast”
Ben Gibbard — Death Cab for Cutie frontman and avid ultrarunner — joined Dylan Bowman to talk about racing Western States, training on tour, the changing music industry, and performing 20-year old songs.
What resonated most for me was their discussion of Western States as a dream race: the pre-race nerves, imagining everything that could go wrong, and finally reaching the point where you just want the problems to show up so you can start solving them.
📈 Interesting Chart of the Week — Workout % by Income Level
In this week’s edition of his always thought-provoking Substack, Derek Thompson wrote about “The Great American Fitness Boom,” making the case that America is “in the middle of a historic health wave”.
One standout chart tracked inactivity rates over time by income level:
The takeaway? Americans4 are becoming less inactive (more active) each year, which is great, but income is the strongest predictor of activity. The lowest income group has almost 3x the inactivity rate of the highest income group.
Data coming soon according to TRAILRUNNINGReview.
No difference in the height of the sole between the heel and the toe.
From TrailRunner.com brand profile.
Thompson also provides evidence that this fitness boom may, indeed, be international.
Loved the read! great insights!
Here some insight from UTMB 2024 (no CCC or other data; 2625 runners counted):
- Hoka 34%
- Salomon 22%
- Altra 7%
- Asics & Brooks: each 4%
- NNormal, Saucony, TNF, La Sportiva each 3%
- Adidas, Kailas, New Balance, Inov8, Mizuno each 2%
- Nike 1%
All other brands 1% or lower
Incredibly interesting as always